Thursday, January 28, 2010

Climate change - the one sided burden of proof

On climate change, in fact on most topics, I regard myself as a skeptic. However, I am an equal opportunity skeptic - every argument deserves equal scrutiny.

When it comes to climate change however, it seems that only on side of the debate appears to be required to survive any level of analysis. Proponent of man made climate change are required to explain every aspect of their models, models that are freely available, and are excoriated for making any adverse assumptions ever.

Any yet those claiming to be skeptics are happy to quote figures that appear to have been simply made up, with absolutely no support and coming from some of the most inaccurate commentators in the history of economic commentary, ie business.

Ok, where's this coming from?

Today in the Australian (the leading anti man made climate change paper in Australia) an article by Bjorn Lomborg (Axe the tax if you want to go green) claims that to reduce carbon to the levels required to required amount would cost - wait for it - 43 trillion dollars a year. Where does this come from? Dont know! What support does this model have? Dont know! What are the assumptions, where did the data come from, are are the error bounds? Dont know, dont know, dont know.

But I will tell you something I do know, economists are always wrong and always vastly, massively, amazingly over-estimate the negative impacts of government action. Every time the government raises the minimum wage we are told that thousands will be thrown out of work, that inflation will sky rocket, that growth will stall. Despite this the government always raises the minimum wage above what business wanted and guess what - nothing happens.

Here's something else I know. Every year, billions, perhaps even trillions of dollars are simply set on fire and burnt up with zero economic benefit. Whether its million dollar cars, boob jobs, twenty thousand dollar watches, gourmet pet food, cigarettes, personal shoppers, blah blah blah. One thing I know, its not that we cant afford to do a bit to deal with the risk of man made climate change, its just that we cant be arsed.

Finally, here's the last thing I know. The economy is imaginary and therefore infinitely flexible. Want proof? - google. This juggernaut is proof that the economy is a kind of fantasy land where immense value can be created (and as Worldcom showed destroyed) overnight, seemingly out of nothing. So you tell me fuel will skyrocket and we wont be able to afford cars, ok, that' s a pity (I love cars) but something else will come along - it always does.

So all I ask is that we demand the same burden of proof of economic Armageddon of those trying to prevent action on climate change as those advocating it. Oh, and while we are at it, just as many are willing to believe we are smart enough to find a technological way of dealing with climate change, how about we equally assume we are smart enough to find a way of dealing with carbon reduction measures.

The curious art of the music critic

For those not from Australia, the publicly funded, quasi alternative, "youth" radio station in Australia Triple J has an annual competition for their "Hottest 100" songs of the year and this year has seen an interesting development.

First, the winning song was Little Lion Man by Mumford and Sons.

The first interesting tid-bit is that I like this song, enough to actually go out and buy the album. (And quickly realised that The Cave is a much better song). That a 43 year old guy that hates dance music, rap, mash-ups, electro-pop and pretty much 90% of the Triple J playlist happened to enjoy the song rated as the hottest by the audience of that station is kind of cool.

But perhaps not unexpectedly, the critics have now started panning the song and a loud chorus of dismay is coming that the song is crap, thin, poorly written, shallow etc etc. This review at The Vine pretty much sums it up.

The thing is I dont disagree. But i suppose I wonder how does that make it different from any other song in the Top 5. Somehow some genres of pop have no requirement to make sense and simply make you want to move up and down and that's fine but others have to do so much more and have to be works of great poetry as well.

Well I dont care - Little Lion Man has some downright nonsensical lyrics but it still moves me somehow in a way that every other song in the top 5 doesnt even try to. I think thats the big difference between me and a whole bunch of other listeners. I dont judge Little Lion Differently to (say) Art vs. Science - 'Parlez-Vous Francais', both are catchy, both are bit silly (one intentionally, the other not so) but Little Lion Man tries to be more and I see that as a plus, not a minus.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Book Review - Shooting Star by Peter Temple

Well I had set a goal of reading 52 books in 2010 and I'm on track just having finished my first, Peter Temples "Shooting Star".

Since I've read this book and I'm trying to run a blog I figured I'd combine the two an include a book review. How I got to Peter Temple is a story first. Frankly when it comes to buying books I tend to be cheap and I'm a huge fan of the Penguin Classics series - after all in Australia books can be so expensive so I'll look for a bargain where-ever I can find one. So when I can get 'great' novels for half the price of average ones from mainstream publishers I'll take every one I can get. Through this series I 'discovered' Raymond Chandler. I wasnt a great fan of crime fiction but since its only a $10 investment I figured it was worth the risk.

I loved the Raymond Chandler novels and found a whole new genre of writing to enjoy.

So with that in mind, driving home, listening to the ABC on the radio a show called The Booksellers came on and each had a chance to name their books of the year, and during that time Peter Temple was mentioned. These things came together and I bought my first Temple novel that afternoon.

I've come to Temple late and I understand that Shooting Star was an early novel from him and is regarded as a bit raw. I would generally agree. Ok, a lightnng synopysis, Frank Calder, ex soldier/cop is hired by a wealthy family to assist following the kidnapping of one of their number. Without giving away the plot, the novel follows the progress to get the child back all the time digging into the family, its dark past and current sins. At the same time the character of Frank is slowly revealed, his history slowing emerging.

That all sounds great but their are a few problems.

I was reminded a little of the "Rome" novels of Colleen McCulloch where the labour of tracking intricate family relationships constantly breaks the flow of the story and it wasnt until I made a quick reference chart to look up as I went that I felt really drawn into the story. Even by the end of the book, Frank is still something of a mystery, thats not entirely a bad thing for a novel thats part of a series but since their appear no follow up to this story I was left feeling I'd sort of met a guy I might like but wasnt sure. Finally, I think the hardest part of any story like this is the ending. And this is perhaps the weakest part of the novel. A great ending to a thriller is one where in retrospect you can say "wow, I should have seen that" while all the time the outcome is
carefully hidden. In Shooting Star in the end I was simply left wondering where the hell had that come from.

So would I recommend the book - if this were the culmination of Temples career I'd probably say no. But its not, Temple has progressed and this book is a great entry into his burgeoning canon.

So, with this my first Temple novel, I look forward to reading my next very keenly.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

New Years Resolutions

Well its been a few months and Mine Shaft Gap - the blog - was in serious danger of dying through a lack of interest. The reality is that the second half of 2009 was a bit of a disaster at home. A death in the family, work got amazingly busy and general life pressures all piled up to make me miss doing something I was really, really enjoying.

So anyway, I'm back, its the new year and now seems like as good a time as any to get back into "it". And what better way to start than with some new years resolutions?

Ok, we've all tried these and virtually none of us ever keep them. Still I persist in hoping that this year will be the year I stick at it.

To increase the odds of me succeeding, and to give me a way of charting my success, I've made 10 resolutions. Also, none (or almost none) of the resolutions are 'binary' that is there's nothing like "quit smoking" that's a single pass/fail. Each of my resolutions offers me the chance to get a partial pass.

Ok, enough gas bagging what are my resolutions?

1. Lose weight. I currently weight 126.5 KG. I aim to be 95 kg by 1 Jan 2011.
2. Get finances in order. I wont go into details but the reality is I've not paid the mucky muck of financial planning enough of a priority. I have more detailed goals but there are limits to what I'll put on the net.
3. Read 52 books, ie one a week. These have to be 'real' books (with words) and technical/how to books dont count.
4. Compete in a formal triathalon. This was a goal for 2009 and I failed. But failing once doesnt mean I cant aim to succeed this time around.
5. Learn French. Ok I'm only 43 but the realities of aging are beginning to turn up and I'm determined to beat them. Just as the triathalon is a 'marker' that my diet and exercise is working I'm using learning a new language as a marker that my brain is still functioning.
6. Have 1000 photos for sale via my stock site Alamy. I'm currently at around 350, so I have to get another 650 or around 50 shots a month. Thats a huge ask for me but its a goal.
7. Have 100 t shirt designs for sale at my red bubble site. I have pages and pages of ideas for stuff and as last year got worse and worse the ideas kept coming but the motivation to follow through evaporated. I've got about 25 designs for sale so far so thats really only a new design every 5 days. I should be able to achieve that - shouldn't I?
8. I want to get a blog entry out there - either here or on my pmac imagery blog every second day (as a minimum).
9. Get my Lancia rally car back and running (and perhaps even get an event under my belt)
10. Complete the flickr 365 day challenge. I clearly arent going to be able to start on 1 Jan - which would have been very convienient - so I'll start on Australia day 26 Jan. Why Australia day? Because I can pretty well be certain I'll have my camera handy.

So thats it - ten resolutions for all 365 days of the year. I'll be tracking my progress via the blog so stay tuned and be prepared to cheer me on or crow as I go down in flames yet again.